A record number of transactions, steep price increases, and an examination of lending market constraints – this was the comprehensive picture presented at the event of the Real Estate Market Section of the Hungarian Economic Association by Dorottya Pápai (REMAX GO Commercial) and Balázs Sándorfi (Bankmonitor). The discussion was moderated by Balázs Pázmány, Chairman of the Board of Erste Asset Management and President of the Real Estate Market Section of the Hungarian Economic Association.
According to estimates presented by Dorottya Pápai, Hungary’s residential real estate market closed approximately 140,000 sales transactions in 2025, representing nearly 25 percent growth compared to the 130,000 transactions recorded in 2024. The expert emphasized that the cyclical real estate market declined in 2023 as a result of inflation, the Russian–Ukrainian war, and deteriorating economic prospects, but a clear rebound followed in 2024–2025.
Last year’s record performance was driven by two factors. At the beginning of the year, part of the savings released from premium government bonds flowed into real estate investments. The real momentum, however, came from the Home Start Program (OSP): the launch of the fixed 3 percent interest-rate loan in September – and even its announcement during the summer – generated a significant wave of demand, leading to a surge in transactions from September through December.
Prices: Budapest Leads, Dynamic Growth Also in the Countryside
In 2025, the average price of used apartments in Budapest rose to HUF 990,000 per square meter on the Pest side and HUF 1.5 million per square meter on the Buda side; overall, prices ranged around HUF 1–1.2 million per square meter. The average price of newly built properties in the capital reached HUF 1.8 million per square meter. The most popular size category was 40–60 square meters on the Pest side and 60–80 square meters on the Buda side.
A particularly notable phenomenon was the 35 percent annual increase in panel apartment prices, while used brick-built apartments rose by 19 percent and detached houses by 20 percent. In some Budapest housing estates, panel apartment prices reached HUF 1.2 million per square meter, approaching the prices of cheaper newly built developments in certain locations. Outside Budapest, price increases of 10–30 percent were typical, especially in areas where industrial investments – such as Debrecen and Győr – attracted workers.
The average selling period was four months, but the most popular and properly priced properties – especially panel apartments – were often sold within two to three weeks, or even within days. In some cases, demand pressure pushed the market from negotiation into bidding wars.
New Construction Boom: OSP-Compatible Projects and Modular Developments
The speaker distinguished between traditional and OSP-compatible new developments. The latter must remain below HUF 1.5 million per square meter, and are therefore typically built using modular, factory-based construction technologies, with lower-quality locations and technical specifications compared to premium developments. Projects consisting of several hundred apartments have been launched not only in Budapest but also in major provincial cities. For the period between 2025 and 2027, the industry expects 10,000–25,000 new homes annually entering the market – one of the most active construction periods in a long time.
According to the unified view of the sector, not only new projects are needed, but also energy-efficient renovation of the existing building stock. Buyers are increasingly paying attention to utility costs and renovation needs: where modernization has begun (window replacement, external insulation), properties tend to sell faster and typically at prices 15–25 percent higher.
Rental Market: Stagnation and the Shadow of Airbnb Regulation
Rental prices failed to keep pace with rising property values: the average rent in the capital stagnated around HUF 250,000 per month, and in some areas even declined. One reason is that tenants purchasing homes through OSP loans exited the rental market. Investor sentiment has also worsened because, from January 1, 2026, short-term Airbnb rentals became prohibited in Terézváros, and other districts are expected to follow.
Hungary’s homeownership rate exceeds 90 percent – an exceptionally high level in European comparison, reinforced by the absence of a state rental housing program since the political transition. Real estate professionals are urging the creation of an institutional rental housing sector: foreign investors and developers are interested, but the legal framework is still lacking.
Lending: Historic Peak, but Serious Structural Tensions
Balázs Sándorfi presented that housing loan disbursements reached a historic record of HUF 1,950 billion in 2025. Following the launch of the OSP, the share of subsidized loans within total lending jumped from 20 percent to 80–81 percent. Of the remaining 19 percent, approximately 4 percentage points consisted of supplementary loans taken alongside OSP/CSOK support schemes; thus, the proportion of genuinely market-based lending fell to only 15 percent.
At the same time, relative to property prices, lending has not expanded excessively: in real terms, the nominal peak in 2025 is close to the average annual level recorded between 2017 and 2021. The issue is not a lack of creditworthiness, but rather that the maximum obtainable loan amount is insufficient compared to sharply increased prices. More than half (54 percent) of newly issued housing loans were taken out by the top 20 percent of earners; the middle class accounts for less than one-third of the mortgage market.
Hungary ranks second from the bottom in the EU lending rankings (ahead of only Romania), and catching up with the Visegrád average would require a 2.4–2.8-fold increase in outstanding housing loans. At the same time, the country recorded a 16-year peak in housing price inflation, while wages and living standards have not fully kept pace.
Outlook: Slowdown, More Targeted Subsidies, Interest Rate Cuts
According to the speakers’ expectations, the market will slow down: the peak of exponential price and transaction growth is already visible. Price stagnation is expected rather than a dramatic decline. The more likely scenario is that wage growth will exceed housing price growth, resulting in relative revaluation rather than a price crash.
The new government has indicated that it does not intend to abolish the OSP program, but budgetary burdens (estimated interest subsidy expenditures of HUF 75–80 billion in 2026) make rationalization likely from 2027 onward. The anticipated direction is more targeted and narrower accessibility based on social considerations – similar to the earlier tightening of the Baby-Expecting Loan scheme.
A favorable development for market-based mortgages is that the yield on 10-year government bonds has declined from the previous 7.2 percent level to 5.7 percent over recent months. This could soon filter through into mortgage rates, bringing a reduction of 0.4–0.5 percentage points. Over the longer term, preparations for eurozone accession – targeted by the current government around 2030–2031 – could bring an additional 1–1.5 percentage point reduction in rates, theoretically making market mortgage rates below 4 percent achievable.
Questions and Answers: Government Change, Panel Apartments, Regional Markets
Moderator Balázs Pázmány invited the experts to answer questions. Participants asked what uncertainties the change of government could bring. According to the speakers, the real estate sector overall views the new directions positively, particularly regarding the potential creation of an institutional rental housing market and the prospect of eurozone accession. Demand from Hungarians returning home from abroad may also stimulate the market.
Regarding the 35 percent increase in panel apartment prices, Dorottya Pápai described it as excessive, but does not expect a major correction. Renovated, energy-efficient panel apartments are considered safe and predictable products, which explains their lasting popularity. Energy-efficiency upgrades (insulation, window replacement, air conditioning) can increase the value of a panel apartment by an average of 15–25 percent.
To stimulate the rural new-housing market, the speaker proposed differentiated incentives: easier down-payment requirements, non-refundable subsidies for developers, and VAT exemptions on building plots. Balázs Sándorfi emphasized the importance of a predictable ten-year framework – investors cannot plan if they do not know whether OSP or preferential VAT rates will still exist in 2028.
On the social impact of the OSP, Balázs Sándorfi stated clearly that the subsidies primarily reached higher-income groups rather than those most in need. This alone contributed to rising prices and reduced access for middle-income households. Lingering trauma from foreign currency mortgages and certain anti-bank government communications continue to reinforce Hungarians’ aversion to borrowing, even though, in the case of 80 percent of housing loans issued over the past 15 years, property appreciation generated enough value within four years to cover the total interest cost over the entire loan term.
This summary was prepared by AI on the basis of a transcript.